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Séminaire du CIRED

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Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, "The transportation sector as a lever for reducing long-term mitigation costs in China"


Chinese transport activities have considerably grown in recent years, and curbing CO2 emissions in this sector has become a major challenge, particularly regarding energy security and climate change issues. In addition to technological solutions, this paper investigates the potentials offered by infrastructure measures favoring lower mobility in the transition to a low-carbon Chinese economy. This is done by embarking a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation in an energy-economy-environment (E3) model. The standard representation of transport technologies is supplemented by an explicit representation of the “behavioral” determinants of mobility. Although driving the transportation demand, these determinants are too often disregarded in mitigation assessments. This framework considers (i) constrained mobility needs imposed by the spatial organization of residence and production (essentially commuting and shopping), (ii) modal choices triggered by installed infrastructures and (iii) the freight transport intensity of production processes. This study highlights the role of transport in the mitigation process. Given a climate target, the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity prove to modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and to significantly reduce the mitigation macro-economic costs relatively to a “carbon price only” policy.