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PhD thesis defense : Gaëlle Le Treut

par Estelle Carciofi - publié le , mis à jour le

Methodological proposals for hybrid modelling : consequences for climate policy analysis in an open economy (France)



This thesis addresses the issue of data hybridisation for energy-economy-environment modelling and its implications for climate policy in the case of France.
The work emphasises the importance of building a hybrid representation of the economy, articulating coherently the economic framework of national accounts and the physical flows, provided by sectoral database (energy balance, industrial statistics). Assuming that it is possible to reduce the uncertainties of data construction, thanks to the equilibrium constraints of flows, this thesis first introduces a method which overcomes the problems of non-coherent nomenclatures, disparate data, or simply missing ones. We show that this hybridisation procedure allows to better describe the weight of both the energy in the French productive system and key sectors of the economy (cement, steel).
The hybrid framework then serves to feed the IMACLIM general equilibrium model. The model is used to explore to what extent the hybrid accounts give an opportunity to renew discussion on the introduction of a unilateral carbon tax in France.
We first measure the importance of the hybridisation procedure for assessing the macroeconomic impact of climate policy.
Then, the sectoral disaggregation allows us to conduct a discussion around central but controversial parameters of modelling : the international trade elasticity and the wage curve interpreted as an indicator of the wage bargaining power. The thesis shows in particular that it is possible, thanks to the progress on the sectoral description, to take into account heterogeneous representation of wage formation between sectors while linking them to their level of exposure to external trade.
Finally, the thesis proposes a methodology to evaluate different emission inventories of CO2, such as "consumption-based" emissions, and emissions embodied in imports while relying on the hybrid framework. We thus provide original insights on the drivers of emissions in France which could extend the analyses to other policies such as the adjustment of a carbon tax at the borders.

Thursday 9 November, 9.30 a.m.
Warning : the room may change
Room 15, Ground Floor, Building 1, Jardin d’agronomie tropicale, Nogent-sur-Marne