For many years, CIRED has been working jointly with the COPPE of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE – UFRJ) to develop scenarios at the interface between strategies for climate change mitigation and economic development objectives. Since 2010, joint efforts have especially targeted the development of an integrated modelling platform of the IMACLIM type and specifically adapted to the Brazilian energy-economy context.
IMACLIM-BR model makes it possible to explore various questions at decarbonization – development interface in Brazil. A first axis studies the issue to implement a possible carbon tax policy in the medium run (2030) and to what extent it could help to reconcile several simultaneous policy objectives (decarbonization, economic growth, employment, equity, etc.). A second axis explores the articulation between massive oil production (“pre-salt” oil) and domestic climate policy. Eventually, IMACLIM-BR was recently used to produce national low carbon scenarios within national and international projects. The IES-Brasil project conducted stakeholders-based mitigation scenarios under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change (FBMC) prior to COP21. IMACLIM-BR also helped to design the Brazilian scenario of the recent Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP).
Team : Julien Lefèvre, Carolina Grottera (PhD student)
A dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Spatial Economy (GEMSE) is applied to the USA. GEMSE aims at quantifying interplays which stem between aggregate and local dimensions of economic activity, which induces populations and firms migration, housing, transportation, transport energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. It consists of a spatial model based on urban economics (Alonso, 1964 ; Mills, 1967 ; Muth, 1969) and the new economic geography (Krugman, 1991) whose economic determinants recursively underpin at each of these two spatial scales the disaggregation of exogenous macroeconomic trends ; energy prices, technical progress, national investments in capital, the average national labor force productivity, the gross domestic product and the national employment rate. Cf the still in pry>
Team : Laurent Faucheux (PhD student)
Peru / Costa Rica
Peru and Costa Rica are two study sites where Cired is conducting an assessment of a bundle of ecosystem services at the watershed scale. Even though there is a difference of climate between the two study sites, both of them are marked by a strong altitudinal gradient and by a large diversity of land uses (agro-forests), which contributes to the supply of various ecosystem services, heterogeneously distributed in landscape.
The recent increase of forest cover in Costa Rica makes this site particularly interesting to study dynamics of bundled ES over time as well as their socio-economical drivers. Several methods for assessing the nature and intensity of ES interactions have been tested in Costa Rica (spatial and temporal correlations, production possibility frontiers) in order to compare their outputs for decision-making process.
In Peru, a scientific partnership between different local institutions (CIFOR-Lima, HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation, regional commission of Environment, NGO’s) enables to launch a deep analysis of the social dimension of the ES. We specifically investigate power asymmetries between beneficiaries of ES and interactions between ecosystems and society. The participatory approach we adopted relies on regular workshops and interviews with local stakeholders.