2C or not 2C ?
FEEM Working paper
Céline Guivarch, Stéphane Hallegatte
Link towards the WP
DT/WP No 2009-12 - Taxe carbone, une mesure socialement régressive ? Vrais problèmes et faux débats
Jean Charles Hourcade, Frédéric Ghersi, Emmanuel Combet
Cet article vise à dissiper les malentendus sur les impacts distributifs de taxes carbone, malentendus qui constituent un obstacle jusqu’ici dirimant à leur plus ample examen dans les débats publics. Il met en évidence l’écart entre les analyses en équilibre partiel, proches de la perception du coût de la fiscalité par les agents, et les analyses en équilibre général qui cernent la réalité de son coût ultime. Il montre que l’impact réel sur les écarts de revenu entre ménages n’est pas mécaniquement déterminé par les budgets énergie de départ et leur degré de flexibilité et qu’il dépend des modalités de recyclage du produit des taxes et de leurs effets macro-économiques. La comparaison de cinq dispositifs de recyclage met en évidence des zones d’arbitrage entre maximisation de la consommation globale, maximisation de la consommation des populations à bas revenus et réduction des inégalités.
DT/WP No 2009-13 - What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous ? An illustrative example on India
Sandrine Mathy, Céline Guivarch
Reference GHG emissions scenarios are critical for estimates of the costs of stabilization and for climate policy recommendations. But recently, existing reference scenarios, notably the SRES, have been the target of criticisms that question their relevance in the light of current emissions trends, dispute the suitability, for developing countries, of the modeling methodologies used and suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on an illustrative example on India. It proposes an alternative reference scenario built with a modeling framework representing as realistically as possible the processes driving energy intensity and carbon intensity changes, in particular accounting for the interactions between energy systems and economic constraints and capturing the sub-optimalities of the energy sector. The mechanisms leading to moderate energy decoupling in this alternative scenario are analysed. From a methodological point of view, our results call for the improvement of the realism of modeling tools for scenarios elaboration. From a mitigation point of view, it appears that the challenge for climate policies to lift the barriers to the diffusion of energy efficiency improvement in India is considerable, but we identify a potential for synergies between development policies and climate policies.
DT/WP No 2009-15 - Integrated Modelling of Economic-Energy-Environment Scenarios - The Impact of China and India’s Economic Growth on Energy Use and CO2 Emissions
Fabien Roques, Olivier Sassi, Céline Guivarch, Henri Waisman, Renaud Crassous, Jean-Charles Hourcade
A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macroeconomic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the microeconomic and macroeconomic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency.
DT/WP No 2009-16 - The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market
Céline Guivarch, Renaud Crassous, Olivier Sassi, Stéphane Hallegatte
This article explores the critical role of labour market imperfections in climate stabilisation costs formation. To do so, we use a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. We show that the degree of rigidity of the labour markets is a central parameter and we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of the model results to this parameter. When labour markets are represented as highly flexible, the model results are in the usual range of existing literature, i.e. less than 2% GDP losses in 2030 for a stabilisation target at 450ppm CO2 equivalent. But when labour markets rigidities are accounted for, mitigation costs increase dramatically. In a second time, the article identifies accompanying measures, namely labour subsidies, which guarantees against the risk of large stabilisation costs in the case of high rigidities of the labour markets. That vision complements the usual view that mitigation is a long-term matter that depends on technology, innovation, investment and behavioural change. Here we add the warning that mitigation is also a shorter-term issue and a matter of transition on the labour market.
DT/WP No 2010-20 - Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply
Julie Rozenberg, Stéphane Hallegatte, Adrien Vogt-Schilb, Olivier Sassi, Céline Guivarch, Henri Waisman, Jean-Charles Hourcade
Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers.
DT/WP No 2010-22 - Peak Oil through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment
Henri Waisman , Julie Rozenberg, Olivier Sassi and Jean-Charles Hourcade
Peak Oil refers to the future peak of world oil production and its impact on the economy. We assess its date, level and economic consequences using the general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. This framework captures the technical, geopolitical and macroeconomic determinants of Peak Oil, which emerges endogenously from their interplay under inertia and non-perfect expectations. A range of dates, from 2017 to 2039, is obtained, depending on assumptions about the reserves, the technical inertia affecting production and the market power of Middle-East producers. The bubble of oil export revenues associated with the post-Peak Oil increase of oil price and its economic consequences are also quantified. We delineate the space of parameters (discount rate ; degree of optimism about oil resources) under which a low short-term oil price may maximize the objective function of oil exporters (maximisation of oil rent, or of long term consumption).
DT/WP No 2011-26 - Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modelling
Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet, Céline Guivarch, Philippe Quirion
Although the building sector is recognized as having major potential for energy conservation and carbon dioxide emissions mitigation, conventional bottom-up and top-down models are limited in their ability to capture the complex economic and technological dynamics of the sector. This paper introduces a hybrid framework developed to assess future household energy demand in France. Res-IRF, a bottom-up module of energy consumption for space heating, has several distinctive features : (i) a clear separation between energy efficiency, i.e. investment in energy efficient technologies, and sufficiency, i.e. changes in the utilization of energy consuming durables which allows the rebound effect to be assessed ; (ii) the inclusion of barriers to energy efficiency in the form of intangible costs, consumer heterogeneity parameters and the learning-by-doing process ; (iii) an endogenous determination of retrofitting which represents trade-offs between retrofit quantity and quality. Subsequently, Res-IRF is linked to the IMACLIM-R computable general equilibrium model. This exercise shows that, compared to a 37% reduction in final energy demand achievable in business as usual in existing dwellings, an additional reduction of 14% could be achieved if relevant barriers to efficiency and sufficiency were overcome.
Working Paper : Biofuels and the Environment-Development Gordian Knot : Insights on the Brazilian Exception
Jean Charles Hourcade, Renaud Crassous, Christophe Cassen, Antoine Saglio, Daniel Thery, Vincent Gitz, André Pereira
MATISSE PROJECT-Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment
Brazil is an agricultural giant that is in the process of becoming an energy giant as a biofuel exporter. Most OECD countries have expressed interest in Brazilian biofuels for coping both with the supply security and the climate risk. None of them has enough biofuel potential domestically. The prospect of a high oil export price provides a unique opportunity for Brazil to design a huge program of biofuel production and export (especially of ethanol) as a development boost and as a component of negotiating and implementing international climate accords. Brazil owns a unique stock of unused croppable land that could be harnessed for a huge biofuel export to the rest of the world. But part of it is also the largest forest in the world, with a huge potential for wood and other forest products, plus a natural carbon storage and a biodiversity wealth, not to forget the local climate equilibrium. Therefore Brazil is facing crucial choices on exploiting its biomass potential without losing so many positive externalities.
This paper first puts into perspective the current Brazilian energy context and its implications for the strategy of this country in climate negotiations. Second it presents a numerical experiment aiming at disentangling the numerous impacts of large-scale exports of ethanol up to 2030 in the context of a world commitment to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 450 ppm of CO2. Third there is an examination of the interplay between mechanisms that determine the impact of a large-scale development of the Brazilian biomass on the prices of food and pressure on forest in Brazil and how Brazil might pursue a dual aim of environment and development. Brazil’s emissions are dominated by the deforestation component, while the political expectations consist mainly in developing more rapidly and with a less unequal pattern.
Télécharger Matisse Working paper 29
FEEM Working paper : Sectoral Targets for Developing Countries : Combining "Common but differenciated Responsibilities with meaningful Participation
Meriem Hamdi Cherif, Céline Guivarch, Philippe Quirion
Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries governments refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Hence, many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. In this paper, we assess such a sectoral approach for developing countries. More precisely, we simulate two policy scenarios in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, whereas developing countries adopt an emission trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries’ cap-and-trade system. In a first scenario, CO2 allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes the auctions receipts
lump-sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction receipts are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. Our quantitative analysis, led with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emission reductions as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system and so is the impact on the electricity price.
FEEM Working paper How CO2 Capture and Storage Can Mitigate Carbon Leakage ?
Philippe Quirion, Julie Rozenberg, Olivier Sassi and Adrien Vogt-Schilb
Most CO2 abatement policies reduce the demand for fossil fuels and therefore their price in international markets. If these policies are not global, this price decrease raises emissions in countries without CO2 abatement policies, generating â€œcarbon leakageâ€ . On the other hand, if the countries which abate CO2 emissions are net fossil fuel importers, they benefit from this price decrease, which reduces the abatement cost. In contrast, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) does not reduce fossil fuel demand, therefore it generates neither this type of leakage nor this negative feedback on abatement costs. We quantify these effects with the global hybrid general equilibrium model Imaclim-R and show that they are quantitatively important. Indeed, for a given unilateral abatement in OECD countries, leakage is more than halved in a scenario with CCS included among the abatement options, compared to a scenario prohibiting CCS. We show that the main reason for this difference in leakage is the above-mentioned international fossil fuel price feedback. This article does not intend to assess the desirability of CCS, which has many other pros and cons. It just identifies a consequence of CCS that should be taken into account, together with many others, when deciding to what extent CCS should be developed.
Climate Policy : Sectoral Targets for developing countries
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Céline Guivarch, Philippe Quirion
Taxe carbone : recyclage des recettes et double dividende
Renaud Crassous, Philippe Quirion, Frédéric Ghersi et Emmanuel Combet
L’évaluation des coûts macroéconomiques des politiques de réduction des émissions de gaz à effets de serre
Crise économique et détente sur le marché du pétrole ?
Sébastien Duquesnoy, Julie Rozenberg, Jean-Charles Hourcade
The Imaclim-R model : infrastructures, technical inertia and the costs of low carbon futures under imperfect foresight
Henri Waisman, Céline Guivarch, Fabio Grazi, Jean Charles Hourcade
Rapport final GICC 2004
Sandrine Mathy et al.
Pace and direction of economic growth under fossil fuels production constraints - A general equilibrium analysis with the Imaclim-R model
Julie Rozenberg, Olivier Sassi
Evaluer Les Interactions entre Politique climatique et Sécurité énergétique en Europe
Rapport final du projet ELIPSE par Céline Guivarch, Stéphanie Monjon, Julie Rozenberg et Adrien Vogt ? Schilb
Rapport d’étape du projet Encilowcarb (European Network engaging CIvil Society in Low Carbon Scenarios)
Project period : April 2009 - September 2011
Liens vers l’article et le supplementary material
Special Issue Climate Change RECIPE
On this issue :
- On the economics of decarbonization in an imperfect world
Ottmar Edenhofer, Carlo Carraro & Jean-Charles Hourcade
Télécharger cet article
- The economics of decarbonizing the energy system - results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison
Gunnar Luderer, Valentina Bosetti, Michael Jakob, Marian Leimbach, Jan C. Steckel, Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer
Lien vers l’article Abstract
- The Imaclim-R model : infrastructures, technical inertia and the costs of low carbon futures under imperfect foresight
Henri Waisman, Céline Guivarch, Fabio Grazi & Jean Charles Hourcade
pre-editing version and the supplementary material
- The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy
Massimo Tavoni, Enrica De Cian, Gunnar Luderer, Jan Christoph Steckel & Henri Waisman Link vers l’article Abstract
- On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime
Gunnar Luderer, Enrica DeCian, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Marian Leimbach, Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer Link vers l’article Abstract
Time to act now ? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action Michael Jakob, Gunnar Luderer, Jan Steckel, Massimo Tavoni & Stephanie Monjon Link vers l’article Abstract
Technology innovation and diffusion in "less than ideal" climate policies : An assessment with the WITCH model Enrica De Cian, Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni Link vers l’article Abstract
The REMIND-R model : the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation first-best vs. second-best worlds Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark & Marian Leimbach Abstract