Centre International de Recherche

sur l’Environnement et le Développement

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CNRS Ecole des Ponts CIRAD EHESS AgroParisTech

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The computation of long term economic pathways and the assessment of sustainable development policies require models able to embark information and expectations from economists, engineers, earth scientists and stakeholders. CIRED has drawn the architecture of modelling IMACLIM in order to cope with this scientific challenge at the interface of environment and development issues, in particular to assess climatic and energy policies.

It relies on a hybrid model which combines a macroeconomic approach with sectional-engineers views. The model is currently available in a static version, IMACLIM-S (Ghersi and Hourcade, 2006), and a recursive version IMACLIM-R (Crassous and al, 2006, Bibas et al., 2015, Hamdi-Chérif et al., 2016).

IMACLIM-S projects the economy of a country or a region to a given forecast (for instance 2030), while taking into account constraints linked, on the one hand, to the macroeconomic equilibrium and on the other hand to the range of technical means. It is particularly used to assess macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constraint (taxes, quotas) according to several details of implementation (recycling, receipts, green tax reform). Recent studies have especially focused on France but other version are available (ie. Brazil, South Africa) or soon (India, China, Saoudi Arabia...).

IMACLIM-R projects the economy as series of annual static equilibrium whose evolution is guided by demographic trends. 12 detailed sectional modules (electricity, transport, fossil fuels, residential) applied in 12 regions are connected to the input-output model of the static version. IMACLIM-R is used to make long term evolution of energetic systems scenarios and assess GHG reduction emissions. It gradually embarks information from reduced forms (nexus) of location of activities/urban forms (SEEC project), land use changes and building energy efficiency in order to better represent drivers of structural changes in scenarios of transition towards a low carbon society.