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Accueil > Equipe > Chercheurs > GUIVARCH Céline


Senior researcher at CIRED, Associate Professor at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech

publié le , mis à jour le


CIRED - Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F-94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex

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- Research Interests

- Publications and writings

- Research projects

- Communications and medias

- Teaching

- Interdisciplinary activities

Research interests

- Climate Change Economics
- Energy Economics
- Modelling, decisions, uncertainty

Publications and writings

Peer-reviewed articles

- Guivarch, C., R. Lempert, and E. Trutnevyte. 2017. « Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research : An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty ». Environmental Modelling & Software 97 : 201 10. Introduction to the Special Issue

- Maury, O., L. Campling, H. Arrizabalaga, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, G. Merino, D. Squires, W. Cheung, M. Goujon, C. Guivarch, S. Lefort, F. Marsac, P. Monteagudo, R. Murtugudde, H. Österblom, J.F. Pulvenis, Y. Ye, B.J. van Ruijven. 2017. « From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs) : Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries ». Global Environmental Change 45 : 203 16.

- Marangoni, G., M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price and D. P. van Vuuren. 2017. « Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ». Nature Clim. Change advance online publication.

- Ó Broin, E., Guivarch, C. 2017. "Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways". Transportation Research Part D : Transport and Environment. working paper version.

- Boucher, O., Bellassen, V., Benveniste, H., Ciais, P., Criqui, P., Guivarch, C., Le Treut, H., Mathy, S., Séférian, R., 2016. "Opinion : In the wake of Paris Agreement, scientists must embrace new directions for climate change research". PNAS vol. 113 no. 27, 7287–7290.

- Guivarch, C., Monjon, S., 2016. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world : The case of Europe". Energy Economics.

- Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, et Vanessa Schweizer. 2016. « The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios : Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database ». Environmental Modelling & Software.

- Guivarch, C., Mejean, A., Pottier, A., Fleurbaey, M., 2016. "Social cost of carbon : global duty", Science 351 (6278) : 1160 61.

- Berry, A., Jouffe, Y., Coulombel, N., Guivarch, C., 2016. "Investigating fuel poverty in the transport sector : Toward a composite indicator of vulnerability", Energy Research and Social Science (in press). working paper

- Trutnevyte, E., Guivarch, C., Lempert, R., Strachan, N. 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration" Climatic Change Volume 135, Issue 3, pp 373-379.

- Gasser, T., C. Guivarch, K. Tashiiri, C. D. Jones, P. Ciais. 2015. "Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2°C." Nature Communications 6, 7958.

- Guivarch, C., Monjon, S., Rozenberg, J., Vogt-Schilb, A. 2015. Would climate policies improve the European energy security ?. Clim. Change Econ. 06, 1550008.

- Branger, F., Giraudet, L.-G., Guivarch, C., Quirion, P. 2015. Global sensitivity analysis of an energy-economy model of the residential building sector. Volume 70, Pages 45-54.

- (in french) Berry, A., Jouffe, Y., Guivarch, C., Coulombel, N. 2015. Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique en matière de transport. La Revue de l’énergie n° 625, 203-209.

- (in french) Cassen, C., Guivarch, C., Lecocq, F. 2015. Les co-bénéfices des politiques climatiques : un concept opérant pour les négociations climat ?. Natures Sciences Sociétés, 23, supplément, S41-S51.

- (in french) Guivarch, C., Cassen, C. 2015. L’atténuation du changement climatique : retour sur le 5e rapport du GIEC. La Météorologie 88, 97-105.

- (in french) Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Vial, J., Brun, E., Cattiaux, J., et al. 2015. Projection des changements climatiques futurs. La Météorologie 88, 65-68.

- Rozenberg, J., Guivarch, C., Lempert, R., Hallegatte, S. 2014. Building SSPs for climate policy analysis : a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Climatic Change 122(3), pp 509-522, Special Issue on ’A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research’ edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. Working Paper version, Supplementary Material and background data.

- Guivarch, C. and Hallegatte, S. 2013. ’2°C or not 2°C ?’ Global Environmental Change, Vol 23, Issue 1, p 179-192. Working Paper version.
dans les media : Die Ziet (en allemand), Vox, Vox.

- Waisman, H.D., Guivarch, C., Lecocq, C. 2013. ["The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways">http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2012.735916] Climate Policy 13(1) : 106-129. Working paper version

- (in french) Vogt-Schilb, A., Guivarch, C., Hourcade, J.C. 2013. Les véhicules électrifiés réduiront-ils les émissions de carbone ? Revue de l’Energie 611 (janvier/février) : 5-11.

- (in french) Guivarch, C., Rozenberg, J. 2013. Les nouveaux scénarios socio-économiques pour la recherche sur le changement climatique. Revue Pollution Atmosphérique. Climat, santé, société. N° spécial climat - Juin 2013.

- Waisman, H.D., Guivarch, C., Grazi, F., Hourcade, J.-C. 2012. The Imaclim-R Model : Infrastructures, Technical Inertia and the Costs of Low Carbon Futures under Imperfect Foresight. Climatic Change, Volume 114, Number 1, 101-120.

- Guivarch, C., Mathy, S. 2012. Energy-GDP decoupling in a second best world - a case study on India Climatic Change, Volume 113, Number 2, 339-356. Working paper version

- Giraudet, L.-G., Guivarch, C., Quirion, P. 2012. Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modelling. Energy Economics, Volume 34, Issue 2, March 2012, Pages 426-445.

- Giraudet, L.-G., C. Guivarch, P. Quirion, 2011, Comparing and combining energy saving policies. Will proposed residential sector policies meet French official targets ? The Energy Journal, Volume 32, Special issue, pages 213-242.

- Guivarch, C., Hallegatte, S. 2011. ’Existing infrastructure and the 2°C target’. Climatic Change 109:801-805. Working paper version

- Hamdi-Cherif, M., Guivarch, C., Quirion, P. 2011. Sectoral targets for developing countries : Combining "Common but differentiated responsibilities" with "Meaningful participation", Climate Policy 11 : 731-751. Working Paper version

- Guivarch, C., Crassous, R., Sassi, O., Hallegatte, S. 2011. The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections. Climate Policy 11 : 768-788. Working Paper version

- Rozenberg, J., Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Sassi, O., Guivarch, C., Waisman, H., Hourcade, J.-C. 2010. Climate change and energy security : climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply. Climatic Change, Volume 101, Numbers 3-4, 663-668.

- Sassi O., Crassous R., Hourcade J.-C., Gitz V., Waisman H., Guivarch C., 2010. Imaclim-R : a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways, International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Special Issue on Models for Sustainable Development for Resolving Global Environmental Issues : Vol. 10, Nos. 1/2, pp.5-24. Working Paper version

- Mathy, S., Guivarch, C. 2010. Climate policies in a second-best world - A case study on India, Energy Policy 38:3, 1519-1528. Working Paper version

- Guivarch, C., Hallegatte, H., Crassous, R., 2009, The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model, Energy Policy 37:11, 4259-4266. Working Paper version

Other publications

- Guivarch, C. and Rogelj, J. 2017. Carbon price variations in 2°C scenarios explored, background paper for the Report of the high-level commission on carbon prices.

- Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Shayegh, S., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Fuss, S., Goeschl, T., Guivarch, C., Lontzek, T., Manoussi, V., Moreno-Cruz, J., Muri, H., Quaas, M., Rickels, W. 2017. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Modeling of Climate Engineering. FEEM Working Paper No. 38.2017.

- Giraudet, G., Guivarch, C. 2016. Global warming as an asymmetric public bad. FAERE Working Paper, 2016.26.

- Guivarch, C., Pottier, A. 2015. Climate damages on production or on growth : what impact on the social cost of carbon. FAERE Working Paper, 2015.15.

- Audoly, R., Vogt-Schilb, A., Guivarch, C. 2014. Pathways toward Zero-Carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7075.

- Trutnevyte, E., Guivarch, C. 2014. Innovative techniques for quantitative scenarios in energy and environmental research : a review. In : Ames, D. P., Quinn, N. W. T., Rizzoli, A. E. (Eds.), 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Proceedings, 15-19 June 2014, San Diego, USA.

- Guivarch, C., Schweizer, V., Rozenberg, J. 2014. Enhancing the policy relevance of scenarios through a dynamic analytical approach. In : Ames, D. P., Quinn, N. W. T., Rizzoli, A. E. (Eds.), 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Proceedings, 15-19 June 2014, San Diego, USA.

- Guivarch, C., Rozenberg, J., Cassen, C. and Hourcade, J.C. 2014. ’Energy, Environment and Sustainable Globalisation’, in (Eds) J. Eatwell, T. McKinley and P. Petit, Challenges for Europe in the World, 2030, Ashgate, UK.

- (in french) Guivarch, C. et Rozenberg, J. 2014. ’Produire des scénarios par centaines. Comment les démarches statistiques renouvellent les approches prospectives.’ Futuribles 398, 49-56.

- Demailly, D., Chancel, L., Waisman, H., Guivarch, C. 2013. A post-growth society for the 21st century. Does prosperity have to wait for the return of economic growth ?, Studies n°08/13, Iddri, Paris, France, 76 p.

- Guivarch, C. and H. Heidug, 2013. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage : the negative emission concept, in Electricity in a Climate Constrained World 2012 - Data and analyses, International Energy Agency, OECD/IEA Publications, Paris, France.

- (in french) Guivarch, C., Hallegatte, S. 2012. ’2°C or not 2°C’, in Le Livre Blanc Climat 2012, L’entreprise, les politiques et les citoyens face au changement climatique, 12 visions d’experts (Eds. O. Guy).

- Guivarch, C., Hood, C. 2011. ’Early retirement of coal-fired generation in the transition to low-carbon electricity systems’, in Climate and electricity annual 2011- Data and analyses, International Energy Agency, OECD/IEA Publications, Paris, France.

- (in french) Hamdi-Cherif, M., Guivarch, C., Quirion, P. 2011. ’Une approche sectorielle pour la production d’électricité dans les pays en développement : enseignements du modèle Imaclim-R’, in Economie du climat, pistes pour l’après-Kyoto (Eds. Godard, O. and J.P. Ponssard), Les éditions de l’Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France.

- Mathy, S., Guivarch, C. 2009. Implementing Climate and Development Policy in India. Climate Science and Policy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, November 13th, 2009, Climate Science and Policy

PhD thesis and Habilitation

- Habilitation (in french)
- Habilitation presentation (in french)
- PhD thesis (in french)

Research Projects

- Co-PI of the french Interdisciplinary Group on Nationally Determined Contributions, 2015 -

- European project ADVANCE, 2013 - 2016
Advanced Model Development and Validation for the Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies

- Sustainable Mobility Institute, 2010 -
"Global vision"

- (in french) Conseil Supérieur de la Formation et de la Recherche Stratégique, 2011-2012

ELIPSE « Evaluer Les Interactions entre Politique climatique et Sécurité énergétique en Europe »

- (in french) Commissariat général au développement durable, 2010
Evaluation des mesures du Grenelle de l’environnement sur le parc de logements français : Impact des mesures existantes et supplémentaires sur la consommation de chauffage, Rapport pour le Commissariat général au développement durable. Etudes et Documents n°58, Novembre 2011.

- Climate Strategies, 2010

Short-Term / Long-Term Coherence of Emissions Reduction Pathway

- European project AUGUR, 2009-2013

Final report "Challenges for Europe in the World, 2030"

- Energy Modeling Forum 25 - Efficiency and Shape of Future Energy Demand, 2008- 2011

- (in french) Programme de Recherche et d’Innovation dans les Transports Terrestres, 2007-2009

Les transports et le Facteur 4, Entre diversification des signaux et réforme fiscale, PREDIT GO n°11 Politique des transports, Rapport final 26 juin 2009.

- (in french) Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable, 2006-2007

La question du secteur électrique en Inde, Programme Gestion et Impacts du Changement Climatique. Rapport final

- European Project ENSEMBLES, 2004-2006

New Emissions scenarios : Exploration of long run carbon-intensive pathways with IMACLIM-R. Rapport final

Communications and medias


- "A methodology to investigate the diversity of socio-economic pathways with similar outcomes", Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium 8th annual conferencce, Potsdam, November 2015.

- session "Scenarios, public deliberations and decisions", Our common future under climate change conference, Paris, July 7-10, 2015. co-convener of the session, and presenter.

- Global warming as a non-uniform public bad : A generalization of the differential game model, AFSE conference, Rennes, June 22, 2015.

- Modeling Climate Impact on Economic Growth : More Harm, More Uncertainty or None of the Above ? Numerical Experiments and Implications for Mitigation Policy, Princeton, Climate Futures Initiative, Spring 2015 seminar series, April 22, 2015.

- "The cost of climate change mitigation : uncertainties and metrics matter", European Economic Association Congress, Toulouse, France, August 25-29, 2014.

- "Would climate policy improve the European energy security ?", World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Istanbul, Turkey, 28 June-2 July 2014

- "Climate change mitigation costs : a tale of uncertainties, metrics and misleading baselines", RAND seminar, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 20 June 2014

- "Enhancing the policy relevance of scenarios through a dynamic analytical approach", International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 7th Intl. Congress on Env.Modelling and Software, San Diego, CA, USA, 15-19 June 2014

- "Climate change mitigation : what is the cost ?", International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 7th Intl. Congress on Env.Modelling and Software, San Diego, CA, USA, 15-19 June 2014

- "Abatement strategies against uncertainty and variability of climate change damages". Workshop Equity and Risk in Integrated Assessment Models, Fondation Maison des Sciences de l’Homme, Paris, May 19-20, 2014.

- "Enhancing the policy relevance of scenarios through a dynamic analytical approach", Workshop IQ SCENE : Innovative techniques for Quantitative SCenarios in ENergy and Environmental research, London, 26-27 March 2014

- "Enhancing the policy relevance of scenario studies through a dynamic analytical approach using a large number of scenarios", International Energy Workshop, Paris, France, June 19-21, 2013. (conference paper)

- "Will climate policy improve European energy security ?, GTAP 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
"New Challenges for Global Trade in a Rapidly Changing World", Shanghai, China, June 12-14, 2013.

- "2°C or not 2°C ?", Planet Under Pressure, London, March 26-29, 2012.

- "The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections", World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Montreal, June 28 - July 2, 2010.

- "What if energy decoupling of emerging economies was not so spontaneous ? An illustrative example on India", International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, March 10-12 march, 2009.

- "Hybrid Modeling of Economy-Energy-Environment Scenarios The Impact of China and India’s Economic Growth on Global Economy and Energy Use", Conference on the International Dimensions of Climate Policies, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, January 21-23, 2009.

- "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model", Conference on the International Dimensions of Climate Policies, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, January 21- 23, 2009.

- "Carbon intensive pathways revisited - Insights from the Imaclim-R modeling framework", International Energy Workshop, Stanford, June 27, 2007.


- (in french) Le déréglement climatique vu par..., UniverscienceTV.

- Participated to the "climate train", national science week event 2015.

- (in french) Co-signed an opinion letter with an interdisciplinary group of researchers in the Huffington Post : Les contributions nationales soumises à la COP21 appellent à une révision et un suivi des émissions.

- (in french) Co-signed an opinion letter with an interdisciplinary group of researchers in le Monde : COP21 : Pour rejoindre rapidement une trajectoire limitant le réchauffement à 2°C

- (in french) "Le Climat en Questions" : Comment les scénarios climatiques prennent-ils en compte les options économiques de nos sociétés ?.


Organizer and faculty of Cired 1st International Summer School in Economic modelling of Environment, Energy and Climate, Topic "Modelling approaches to assess NDCs and mid-century strategies", Paris, 2017 July 4-8. program. video from participants.

(other, all in french)

Leçon Inaugurale de première année, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, 2017. Le Changement Climatique - des défis pour l’économie. (supports).

Master Economie de l’Energie, de l’Environnement et des Transports (EEET-EDDEE), parcours modélisation

Mastère Politique et Action Publique pour le Développement Durable, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Economie de l’Energie et de l’Environnement

Cursus Ingénieurs, 1ere année, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Initiation au Calcul Economique (avec Laurent Lamy)

Modélisation prospective énergie-climat, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech 2013-...

Master Transport et Développement Durable, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech 2012-... - interventions dans le cours "changement climatique"

Séminaire "Les enjeux de la transition énergétique - de l’échelle globale à l’échelle locale", partenariat Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ville de Garges-les-Gonesses.

Prospective pour l’environnement et le développement - les scénarios du GIEC, MPAPDD-MSPPSE, AgroParisTech, novembre 2014

Les scénarios du changement climatique pour le prochain siècle - scénarii économiques-, Ecole de Printemps MedNet, Aix-en-Provence, 9 juin 2015

Interdisciplinary Activities

- Four dilemmas for an economy-energy-environment economist/modeler, Conference of PhD program ABIES, 15 April 2016.

- Preparatory workshop to COP21 on INDC evaluation : Boucher, O., H. Benveniste, and C. Guivarch (2016), Nations’ pledges to reduce emissions and the 2°C objective, Eos, 97.

- (in french) Seminar invited in Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain. "Exploration des liens entre croissance, énergie et émissions de gaz à effet de serre - modèles, scénarios, incertitudes".

- Invited speaker at the Alliance Summer School in Science and Policy 2014, "Climate Change Research : The Nexus of Natural and Social Science". slides from the talk.

- Co-organizer of the UCL-Cired workshop IQ SCENE : Innovative techniques for Quantitative SCenarios in ENergy and Environmental research. workshop report.

- "Recent work at Cired in the Framework for the Development of
New Socio-economic Scenarios forClimate Change Research
", Science for Energy Scenarios, Ecole de Physique des Houches, February 2-7, 2014 (invited presentation). Video of the presentation

- DISCCRS VIII Symposium participant. Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research, October 12-19, 2013, La Foret Conference Center, Colorado, USA. videos from the symposium : What do you wish everyone knew about climate change ? | What do you want to know about climate change ?