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Accueil > Actualités

Séminaire CIRED : M. GITTARD et F. GUBERT

par Estelle Carciofi - publié le , mis à jour le


Résumé / Abstract


For Sub-Saharan households, highly dependent on agricultural activity, adaptation to climate variability in a context of global climate change is becoming more and more indispensable. As migration is one of the adaptive strategy, climate variability could alter incentives to stay in affected areas and lead to internal and international displacements. These two papers study the effects of climate variability on inter and intra-district migration and population growth in the cases of Mali and Kenya. Migration and population data from exhaustive censuses are matched with gridded temperature and precipitation data. The use of representative data is a first contribution to the micro-oriented literature on climate induced migration. Panels on bilateral migration, both in Mali and Kenya, are built thanks to retrospective questions. A particular attention is devoted to variability on inter-sub location migration and population, and inter-district bilateral migration patterns. We find evidence of climate as a push factor on inter-district migration, rather than a pull factor, in both countries. There is no significant difference between men and women, while lower effect for older age-cohorts and highly diversified crops in the case of Mali. Overall, these two studies are methodological contributions, advocating for the use of relevant climatic indicators and local demographic effects in order to understand the effects of climate variability on migration.

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