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Accueil > Actualités

Séminaire CIRED : Frank Venmans

par Arancha Sánchez - publié le , mis à jour le

Résumé / Abstract

"We collect several of the most important economic models of climate change and show that they produce climate dynamics inconsistent with the current crop of models in climate science. First, most economic models exhibit far too long a delay between emissions and resulting warming. Second, most economic models do not exhibit diminishing marginal removal of atmospheric CO2, an important positive feedback in the carbon cycle. We assess the economic implications of these inconsistencies, using the DICE model. We find that a long delay between emissions and warming leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low. It also implies optimal carbon prices are more sensitive to the discount rate than is really the case. Omitting diminishing marginal removal of atmospheric CO2 also leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low. The effect is larger when atmospheric CO2 is high and it is of a broadly comparable size to a long delay. We also find that DICE 2016 heats up too much in the long run and this contributes to the false impression that it is infeasible to limit warming to 2°C as mandated by the UN Paris Agreement."

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