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9/07/2015 : Soutenance de thèse de Frédéric Branger

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Frédéric Branger soutiendra sa thèse de doctorat intitulée : "Impact des
politiques climatiques sur les industries énergie-intensive", le 9 juillet 2015 à 9 h 30 au Cired, devant le jury suivant :

- Joachim Schleich, professeur à Grenoble Ecole de Management
- Matthieu Glachant, professeur à l’Ecole des Mines Paristech
- Roger Guesnerie, professeur émérite au Collège de France
- Thomas Sterner, professeur à University of Gothenburg
- Stéphanie Monjon, maitre de conférence à l’Université Paris Dauphine
- Philippe Quirion (directeur de thèse), chercheur au CNRS

résumé

This thesis contributes to the literature on carbon leakage and
competitiveness losses in energy-intensive industries generated by uneven
climate policies. After a meta-analysis of modelling studies assessing
carbon leakage with or without Border Carbon Adjustments ; we use time
series econometrics and find no evidence of competitiveness-driven
operational leakage due to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU
ETS) for steel and cement. Next, we decompose emissions the European
cement sector into seven effects with a Log Mean Divisia Index method, and
show that most of the variations can be attributed to the activity effect.
Abatement due to the EU ETS is estimated at around 2% between 2005 and
2012 while the amount of “overallocation profits” is assessed at 3.5
billion euros. Further, we demonstrate that the cement industry
strategically reacted to the introduction of a new rule supposed to reduce
free allocation in low-producing installations. Companies artificially
increased production in some plants, generating distortions going against
the low carbon transformation in this sector. We finally discuss possible
reforms in the EU ETS and advocate for output-based allocation in the
short term.