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7-10 july - International conference : Our common future under climate change

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CIRED, member of the organizing and scientific committees of the international scientific conference “Our Common Future Under Climate Change” from July 7 to 10 in Paris, co-organize seven sessions and two side events. Cired’s researchers present 6 communications and 9 posters.

- For detailed programme, visit the conference web site

- Please read below details of our participation at the conference :

Sessions co-organized by Cired

Day 2 : Session 3322 (a) - Representation of technological dynamics and societal transformation

- Lead Conveners : N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg - Austria) ; JC. Hourcade (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris - France)

This session will discuss a) the interplays between energy consumption patterns, urban dynamics and land-use patterns, b) how to interconnect models of technological change with macroeconomic and sectorial models c) how to better interconnect models projecting development pathways and models of the earth systems.

Day 2 : Session 3322 (b) - Development of pathways : their mix of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties and their future under a changing climate

- Lead Conveners : N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg - Austria) ; JC. Hourcade (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris - France)

This session will focus on (a) the future perspectives of economic globalization, (b) climate change damages and economic growth and (c) the equity dimension of both the economic globalization process and representing growth pathways with disequilibria, starting with the conventional steady-state.

Day 3 : Session 3305 - Energy efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demand

- Lead Conveners : LG. Giraudet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement (Cired), Nogent sur Marne - France) ; S. Lechtenböhmer (Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal - Germany)

Energy efficiency is seen as the most cost-effective option to mitigate climate change and is increasingly targeted by governments across the world. However, numerous barriers so far prevent full succes. Particularly for basic industries which are very material and energy intensive quite specific challenges do exist for significant efficiency improvements and deep decarbonisation of demand. Therefore, successful policy portfolios need to take up novel energy efficiency related policy portfolios that are synergistically linked to climate policy and take into account specific technical potentials, socio-economic variables as well as international competition, particularly for the field of industry. The PS will first discuss the broad political and economic issues on improving energy efficiency and the second particular challenges and specific strategies for basic industries. Discussion will be completed by a round table on how to link energy efficiency policy successfully to climate policy.

Day 3 : Session 2236 - Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions

- Lead Conveners : Lempert R. (RAND Corporation) ; Fløttum K. kjersti (University of Bergen).
Conveners : Dargusch P. (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia). ; Vervoort J.( University of Oxford) ; Trutnevyte E. (program on climate change, agriculture and food security/environmental change institute, Oxford) ; Guivarch C. (CIRED, Paris, France.)

Scenarios can prove a powerful means of decision support, helping decision makers to recognize more fully the climate challenges we face and explore more expansively potential solutions. Recent years have seen significant advances in both scenario practice and scenario methods. This session will explore how scenarios have affected change and how new methods are making scenarios even more effective. This session invites talks describing and evaluating how scenarios have been used for policy making, how new quantitative methods can facilitate the development and use of scenarios for decision support, how evaluating the narrative structure of scenario storylines can improve their impact, and how serious scenarios games can engage stakeholders in the evaluation of policy outcomes. This multidisciplinary session invites contributions that address questions such as how can scenarios best promote transformational policies ? How are scenarios best represented, by language and other forms of representation ? How can scenarios be evaluated ? We seek contributions from different disciplines, which may lead to interesting discussions of crossdisciplinary research and indicate links between scenarios, public deliberation and decisions.

Day 3 : Session 3317 - Mainstreaming low carbon consumption : challenges and opportunities

- Lead Conveners : Walker G. (1) Lancaster Environment Centre, Co-director of the demand center (dynamics of energy, mobility and demand), Lancaster, United Kingdom
Conveners : Barbier C. (CIRED, Nogent sur Marne, France) . ; Girod B.( Group for Technology and Sustainability, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland) ; Baartmans R (TNO, Strategy and Policy, Delft, Netherlands)

Many studies highlight the limits of purely technological fixes for achieving sustainability. Thus, shifts in consumption patterns and lifestyles associated with technological solutions are essential for achieving transitions towards low-carbon development pathways.
Mobilizing different social scientific and methodological approaches can help us better understand the dynamics of consumption patterns and develop relevant policy measures.
Consumption patterns related, for example, to food, mobility and home living are shaped by material, social and cultural processes.
They are also embedded in many mundane social practices and daily routines. Co-evolving social change is necessary, on a scale that extends beyond those people that are already committed, beyond individual attitudes and behaviours, to truly collective, societal and structural change.
The session will aim at improving understanding of the underlying drivers of consumption patterns and processes of social change.
How do we understand the nature of much of the energy consumption that makes up the carbon burden of contemporary living ? What are the challenges behind mainstreaming low carbon social change ?

Day 4 : Session L 41 - The climate, finance and trade nexus

- Co-conveners : JC. Hourcade (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Developpement - CIRED - France) ; R. Melendez Ortiz (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development - ICTSD - Switzerland)

This session will address the need to align climate policies with the objective of an “equitable access to development’ called for at COP 16 in Cancun. It will take as a starting point the challenging economic context which characterizes the world economy since 2008, and the resulting political tendency to postpone climate action. Indeed, policy makers face political challenges when it comes to justifying major investment in a low carbon infrastructure, as well as to maintaining an open trade in times of constrained public budgets and low and instable growth. The session will therefore make a case for turning the question upside-down and using the low carbon transition as a lever for a robust and inclusive economic recovery.
Three introductory keynotes address will a) explain the links between climate policies, trade and finance with an emphasis on the synergies between carbon pricing and financial instruments for redirecting world savings b) point to inefficiencies in the trade system which currently maintain costs of climate-friendly technologies artificially high, and propose options for addressing these, c) present the state of the art in climate finance.
Three experts involved in the political process in their respective countries and at the international scale will then discuss the political requirements for securing a virtuous circle between climate, finance and trade issues worldwide.

Day 4 : Session 4419 - Climate science in the public sphere. Media coverage and communication devices analysis for effective policy implementation

- Lead Conveners : JB. Comby (University Paris 2, French press institute / center for interdisciplinary analysis and research on media, Paris - France) ; P. Maugis (UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ (UMR 8212), IPSL, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette - France)
Convenors : Miriame Cherbib et Minh Ha Duong ( CIRED)

How does climate science knowledge circulate in the public spheres, both national and transnational ? Addressing this core issue, the session has two main parts. The first section draws on comparative media research, presenting an empirically grounded global overview of the diversity of media interpretations of scientific knowledge of IPCC AR5 during 2013 and 2014. It will also discuss the complex social logics that explain some of the main differences and similarities of media coverage of climate science in 20 countries, looking at what kind of scientific knowledge is favoured by journalists and how IPCC’s results are locally interpreted in media systems that are still largely nationally grounded.
Such social scientific understanding of the dynamics of this landscape is a necessary step for climate scientists on the road towards more effective climate communication.
The second part presents a variety of experimental and original ways to implement society-science dialogue, either to upgrade low-carbon projects or to raise citizen awareness and action. Presentations will demonstrate devices elaborated to ease relations between stakeholders, citizens and climate scientists when it comes to shape a common future in response to the “dangers” of climate change. How does knowledge circulate and how do citizens with a variety of social backgrounds appropriate climate related knowledge ? What roles do experts play vis-à-vis citizens ? Based on research action experiences in different socio-historical contexts, presentations will also question the “cultural” dimensions of this social-science dialogue needed to collectively build low-carbon societies.

Side events co-organized by CIRED

Visions of a low carbon society

CIRED ( Minh Ha-Duong and Miriame Cherbib) and BRGM will share the Visions of a low carbon society produced by the R&Dialogue project for France on Sunday, July 5th, from 5:30pm to 8:30pm in Paris. Discussions will be followed by a welcome cocktail for science, technology and society researchers attending the Our common future conference.
Using a non-violent communication approach provided by University of Roma and applied simultaneously in 10 European countries, between July 2014 and February 2015 the French R&Dialogue team has organized groups of dialogue on key aspects of the energy transition : i. wind power : social acceptance and difficulties ; ii. oil and dependence ; iii. energy transition and European construction ; iv. territorial organization of the energy transition. This French national dialogue culminated in a plenary meeting of the French national council held at CIRED in spring 2015. That event was the opportunity for a larger group of actors to discuss and amend the Visions of a Low Carbon Society for France.
After sharing the results of our dialogue research-action, a cocktail and poster presentation will welcome participants to the Common future Paris conference. The event venue is the top of the Zamansky tower, in UPMC where the part of the Our Common Future conference will take place.
Located near the banks of the Seine river and in the Quartier Latin, this is the place to be in Paris on a Sunday evening in July.
Participation is limited to 150, free by registration only, contact the organizers for more information. Accompanying persons are welcome to the cocktail. This is an official side event to the Our Common Future under Climate Change conference.
Contact : Miriame Cherbib : cherbib@centre-cired.fr

New Frontiers for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Policies

- Organized by CIRED and IIASA - Conveners : Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Jean-Charles Hourcade
Amongst the major planetary challenges of the 21st century are the interplays between climate change and the multiple dimensions of development. The specific challenge for the modeling community is to help understanding these interplays in order to put some rationales in policy debates about how to simultaneously address climate change and the other “stresses” or “tensions” that might affect the sustainability of development pathways.
How to meet this challenge the question addressed in this side-event though an open discussion between the key teams involved for years in IAM. The existing tools developed by this community result indeed from long standing traditions often launched in the seventies after the first oil shock. The question though is to what extent the new challenges can be addressed through a better and more extensive use of the current state-of-the-art or demand profound evolutions of this state-of-theart.
These challenges are actually well-known for example i) representing bifurcations in development pathways and the interplays between income distribution, ’non marketed/informal’ activities and growth ii) capturing the dependence of the magnitude of the climate change impacts upon the structural fragilities and adaptive capacity of the impacted society iii) coupling energy models with models of urban dynamics and of land-use including for endogenizing the drivers of consumption patterns, iv) bridging the gap between the analysis of the launching phases of climate action in adverse economic conditions and the analyses of long-term transformation pathways.
The side-event will be based on a call to the researchers of the IAM community present at the Our Common Future conference to produce a short paper (between 3000 and 6000 signs) synthetizing, in function of their own experience and their own understanding of the policy issues, their view of the New Frontiers for the IAM.
The side-event will last 2 hours and a half and will be organized as follows
One introductory keynote (20 minuts) by N. Nakicenovic and JC Hourcade, synthesizing the received material
A roundtable of reactions to this keynote by representatives of the various modeling approaches : Ottmar Egenhofer (PIK), Riahi Keywann (IIASA), Detlef Van Vuuren (PBL), John Reilly (MIT), Maryse Labriet, Pryadarshi Shukla (IIM), Emilio La Rovere (COPPE/UFRJ), Leon Clarke (U.Maryland) (seven minutes each)
One hour of overall debate with the audience covering three main issues : the main scientific challenges, the methodological breakthrough to be operated, the institutional challenges for a better organization of the scientific community. The side-event will be follow the parallel sessions on modeling (3322 a and b), most probably at Jussieu University.

The role of international financial institutions, central banks, and monetary policies in the low carbon transition

- Organized by J. Pisani-Ferry (France Stratégie, Paris, France) ; N. Robins (UNEP, London, United Kingdom) ; JC. Hourcade (CIRED)

Given the tight budgetary constraints on governments, public spending alone will not
be sufficient to provide the amount of investment needed to reach a 2°C target. There is a need to a) cut down the risks level on low carbon investments, b) shift private financial flows from “brown” sectors to “green” sectors c) leverage new sources of financing including the savings currently not directed to production and infrastructures.
High enough and credible carbon prices will be essential to do so. But, it will not suffice in alleviating the financial constraints that inhibit investment decision. These constraints result from the intrinsic risks of low-carbon investments in capital intensive equipment and infrastructure in a shareholder business regime (uncertainty about upfront costs, final markets, fossil fuels prices and about the regulatory context of the infrastructure sectors).
The intuition behind this side-event is that the upgrading of climate finance be achieved in an adverse economic context only if the low carbon transition is perceived by ‘climate agnostic’ policy-makers as an help to reducing some of these fault lines which threaten the world economy. A redirection of savings towards low carbon infrastructures would indeed lower the obligation to ’export to grow’ and support a more ’inclusive’ growth ; it requires to invent devices apt to bridge long-term and short-term cash balances, to reduce investment risks of low-carbon projects to enhance the palatability of long-term productive investments vis-à-vis liquid assets and to diversify reserve currencies through the carbon assets.
The side-event will convene about 30 to 50 experts to organize an open discussion between experts and practitioners about the implications of the involvement of central banks and institutions of the international financial governance in the low-carbon transition. The targeted audience is both experts of the ‘climate affair’ and experts in Finance and Monetary Policies, representatives of banks, central banks and financial institutions :
- Experts involved in the policy process : Klaus Töpfer, Pascal Canfin, Teresa Ribera
Academics in environmental economics, macroeconomy and finance : Nick Mabey (E3G), Jorge Nunes, Michel Aglietta, Billy Pizer or Gilbert Meltcalf, Etienne Espagne, Baptiste Perissin Fabert, Christian Egenhofer, Michael Grubb, Alex Barkawi (CEP), Richard Werner (Southampton), Adair Turner (Institute for New Economic Thinking), Cornelius Block (Ecofys), Carlo Carraro, Zhang Chenghui, Financial Research Institute (China)
- Experts from the international organisations : Wickram Widge (World Bank), Richard Baron (OECD), Nick Robins (UNEP), Christopher Kaminker (OECD), Anthony Cox (OECD), Ian Parry (IMF), Marianne Fay (World Bank)
Experts and representative from financial institutions : Marc Carney (Bank of England), Habib Rahman (Deputy General Manager, Bangladesh Bank), Wim Boonstra (Rabobank) Pan Gongsheng or Ma Jun or Yao Bin (People’s Bank of China), Michael Sheren/Marc Carney (Bank of England), Atiur Rahman (Governor, Bangladesh Bank), Mario Sergio Vasconcelas, (Brazilian Banking Association), Aloisio Tupinambá (Governor’s Office for Regulation, Brazil), Aloisio Tupinambá (Governor’s Office for Regulation, Brazil), Rajan Raghuran (central bank of India), Stephen King (HSBC), Sascha Brok (Deutsche Bank), Armin Sandhövel (Allianz), Pierre Ducret (CDC) Harald Benink (CentER), Rens Van Tilburg (Utrecht), Peter Schäfer (KfW), Gaël Giraud (AFD), Marc Landreau (Banque de France)

- Objectives and Expected Outcomes

The side-event should bring (i) a common language between scientific expertise, project developers and the various actors of the financial system - including central banks and financial governance institutions - to accelerate the emergence of operational proposals to mainstream climate policies in financial practices ; (ii) identification of the elements of the climate policy regime under the UNFCCC necessary as anchor points for climate-friendly evolutions in the governance of the financial systems and the monetary systems beyond 2015 ; and (iii) the launching of a “low carbon financing debate platform” coordinated by France Strategie and inviting high level contributors for discussing freely, beyond COP21, about the linkages between the financial and monetary systems and the climate challenge.

Communications or posters


- 7 /07/2015 : Franck Lecocq : 2237 (b) - Planetary Economics (2) : expanding the horizons of economic sciences and the policy implications
Lead Convener : M. Grubb (University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London - UK)

This Parallel Session, the second of a 2-part session jointly with OECD and FEEM under the broad title of ‘Planetary Economics’, would summarise a wide body of work focused around the proposition that more effective responses require disaggregation of the possibilities and decision processes at different scales of space and time. This implies conscious design of policies to better align them with different kinds of motivation and risk-reward perceptions, and an understanding of how responses at different time and spatial scales can mutually reinforce each other. We will illustrate these themes drawing on the book Planetary Economics, which sets out an over-arching theory of three domains of economic decision-making, based on different theoretical perspectives (behavioural, optimising and evolutionary). Rather than being alternate explanations, these offer descriptions into complementary processes at different spatial and temporal scales.

- 9/07/2015 : Philippe Quirion (Cired) and Oskar Lecuyer (Université de Bern) : " Dealing with uncertainty in the European climate policy" - session : 3339 - Effective design and implementation of EU climate policy

Lead Conveners : S. Munaretto (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam - Netherlands) ; A. Kalfagianni (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Environmental policy analysis, Amsterdam - Netherlands)

Governing the transformation of the European Union to a low-carbon economy by mid-century is a huge challenge requiring a mix of policy instruments. This session presents findings of the EU funded CECILIA2050 project (Choosing Efficient Combinations of Policy Instruments for Low-carbon Development and Innovation to Achieve Europe’s 2050 Climate Targets). The session targets economic, financial, and political constraints and opportunities of the current EU climate policy instrument mix while fostering discussion about new, innovative policy proposals for more ambitious and transformative EU climate policy. The first contribution to the session examines the key benefits and challenges of instruments contained within three stylized (but detailed) policy ‘packages’. The second paper discusses where financing may come from, the barriers that act to prevent the required investment, and options to reduce these obstacles. The third paper addresses the fundamental issue of uncertainty by developing a stochastic model of the European energy sector featuring the most important uncertainty sources in this context, including economic growth and the cost of key technologies. Finally, the last paper addresses the crucial issue of political feasibility by applying the results of a multi-method approach to a systematic framework that integrates stakeholder preferences, power dynamics and institutions.

- 9/07/2015 - Oral presentation of Meriem Hamdi-Cherif : The transportation sector as a lever for reducing long-term mitigation costs in China - Parallel session 3333 : China’s climate policies and low-carbon innovation

Chinese transport activities have considerably grown in recent years, and curbing CO2 emissions in this sector has become a major challenge, particularly regarding energy security and climate change issues. In addition to technological solutions, this paper investigates the potentials offered by infrastructure measures favoring lower mobility in the transition to a low-carbon Chinese economy. This is done by embarking a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation in an energy-economy-environment (E3) model. The standard representation of transport technologies is supplemented by an explicit representation of the “behavioral” determinants of mobility. Although driving the transportation demand, these determinants are too often disregarded in mitigation assessments. This framework considers (i) constrained mobility needs imposed by the spatial organization of residence and production (essentially commuting and shopping), (ii) modal choices triggered by installed infrastructures and (iii) the freight transport intensity of production processes. This study highlights the role of transport in the mitigation process. Given a climate target, the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity prove to modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and to significantly reduce the mitigation macro-economic costs relatively to a “carbon price only” policy.

- 9/07/2015, Jussieu : Emmanuel Combet ( CIRED) : “A Carbon tax and the Risk of Inequity”, Theme Day 3 : Respondingto Climate Change Challenges, Session 08 - Fiscal Reform - 17h30 - 19h.

This paper aims at clearing up some misunderstandings about the social impacts of carbon taxes that proved to be a decisive obstacle to their further consideration in public debates. It highlights the gap between the cost of a carbon tax reform as it is spontaneously perceived by the taxpayers and the reality of its ultimate consequences : the real impact on households’ poverty and inequalities is not mechanically determined by the initial burden of energy on consumption budgets and by the capacity of households to alleviate it, but also depends upon the use made of the tax proceeds and its general macroeconomic impacts. The comparison of five taxrecycling schemes highlights the existence of trade-offs between maximising total consumption, reducing unemployment, maximising the consumption of the low-income classes and reducing income inequality.

- 9/07/2015, Jussieu : Emmanuel Combet ( CIRED) : "Carbon Tax, Pensions and Deficits" 4405 - On the macroeconomic opportunity of climate policy - Theme Day 4 : Collective Action and Transformative Solutions, Sessions : 07 - Finance and Macroeconomic Conditions - 15h à 16h30

This paper aims to draw attention on the consequences of the prevailing intellectual compartmentalization between ’energy and climate’, on the one hand, and ’the viability of social security systems’, on the other. We take the methodological venture of building a general equilibrium model to analyse jointly these issues. The model is applied to France and projected to a future horizon (2020). It ensures consistency by linking together 1) a description of the future constraints on energy and demand, and 2) a partial forecasting scenario of the pension system. First, we analyse two types of archetypical reforms that use one instrument to meet one objective. The first type recourses to one of the present instruments of the pension system (social security contributions on wage income, age of retirement). The second type absorbs the deficits of the pension system by preempting revenues generated by the climate policy (here a carbon tax). After examining the limitations of those singleinstrument/ single-objective policies, we provide an example of a multi-objective policy package that enables the limitations to be removed. In so doing, we present a way of exploring potential synergies between long term development goals.

-  9/07/2015, Jussieu : Communication de Jules Schers : "Nexus of climate mitigation and key development objectives - An analysis for South Africa" - session 4406(a), de 14:30 à 16:00 : Climate change and Development : Alleviating poverty and achieving inclusive development within the constraints of a global carbon budget and other planetary boundaries


- 6/07/2015 : Alain Nadaï and Olivier Labussière : The new collectives of the energy transition dans le cadre du side event « Faire face aux changements climatiques / Les apports de la recherche collaborative sur projets » organisé par l’ANR, le lundi 6 juillet à la Maison de la Chimie.

Authors : Olivier Labussière (PACTE) ; Alain Nadaï (CIRED)
Collener is an interdisciplinary project (economics, sociology, geography, urbanism, land planning). It critically analyses the processes of energy transition and their related issues with the method of social sciences.
The notion of « energy transition » has emerged during the past decade in order to point at processes or ambitions of decarbonising our energy path. Transition scenarios, quantitative visions and technological potentials have been produced in order to inform the steering of this transition. Yet, they do not point towards a consensual transition path. Many, if not all new energy technologies (NET) raise debates as to whether or not they should be developed (CCS, nuclear) and/or controversies as to how they should be developed (wind power, smart grids …). A key argument of the COLLENER project is that the only potentials are « transition potentials » : they are potentials-in-the-making, emerging through the processes of socio-technical assemblage of NET. Steering the transition calls for a deeper understanding of these processes and of their social and political embedding.
The COLLENER project follows ongoing processes of energy transitions on different scales (transnational, national, local), different technologies (solar, wind, smart grids, biomass, low energy building, CCS) and in different countries (France, Germany, Tunisia). It totals up to 31 case studies.
The aim of the project is to reach beyond quantitative visions of the energy transition and explore whether new energy technologies (NET), because of their modularity and potential for decentralization, might contribute to sustainable development -i.e. reshape risks, wealth and powers while contributing to decarbonation of our economies.

- 9/07/2015 : Audrey Berry : Building fuel poverty measurement for the transport sector . Session poster and social event
Authors : Audrey Berry (Cired) ; Céline Guivarch (Cired) ; Yves Jouffe (Lab’Urba, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée) ; Nicolas Coulombel (Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée)
Attention has been focused on fuel poverty in the residential sector so far ; however traveling by car is another essential energy service for part of the population. If an increase in fuel prices will affect more strongly households with the highest motorized mobility needs, here we show that assessing who are those households is not straightforward, and that it calls for the development of a new multidimensional fuel poverty indicator. To diagnose fuel poverty in the transport sector, we find current approaches are not satisfactory because they fail to account for : (1) diverse mobility needs, (2) restriction behaviours, (3) variable households adaptive capacity. We develop a new composite indicator that does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility. Our composite indicator differentiates three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices. We test this indicator on French data and find 4,0% of French households are identified at-risks, another 8,3% are vulnerable in their required mobility and another 6,8% are dependents to car. Finally our results demonstrate using a multidimensional fuel poverty indicator brings a new light on which comprehensive fuel poverty measures could be developed.

- 9/07/2015 : Philippe Quirion : Policies to favour crop intensification and farm income under climatic risk in West Africa – Session "Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Lead Conveners : S. Janicot (IRD, Paris - France) ; A. Amani (UNESCO, Hydrololgic international programme, Nairobi - Kenya)

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most significant climate hotspot of our planet, both in terms of observations throughout the end of the XXth century and in terms of projections for the XXIst century. Global warming and expected climate variability enhancement are likely to worsen the prevailing water scarcity in this region, affecting significantly food security, biodiversity, human health and livelihood. Climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge in a region where living conditions and environment are already strongly affected by land-use changes and demographic pressure. Effective adaptation to climate change will be fundamental in limiting the risks for human activities and livelihood and in achieving development goals. The aim of this session is to review the state of knowledge on observed changes and foreseen perspectives, related to climate, environment and socio-economy, in this highly vulnerable region. It will cover (i) observed climate changes and related impacts, (ii) future climate change and (iii) impacts scenarios and adaptation options in a warmer climate.

- 09/07/2015 : Hoang Anh Nguyen Trinh and Minh Ha-Duong : “Costs and benefits of a greener alternative for the development of Vietnam’s power sector” – Daily theme : Theme Day 3 : Responding to Climate Change Challenges ; Sessions : 03 - Decarbonizing Electricity"

In this study, BAU (a scenario based on current trends) and ALT (a greener alternative with more renewables, higher energy efficiency) are developed. The external costs of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 in the Vietnamese power sector are estimated at 20, 1328, 2047 and 1460 US$/ton, respectively. The authors find that the electricity price and the domestic trade balance in ALT are less sensitive to fluctuations in the international price of coal than in BAU. The total costs accumulated between period 2010-2040 would be lower in ALT : 632 billion US$ compared with 974 billion US$. This difference arises from several factors : lower investment in new capacity (226 vs 306 billion US$) ; lower local pollution costs (73 vs 137 billion US$) ; and lower expenditures on imported fuels (57 vs 115 billion US$). The outcomes of ALT are in accord with the targets in the most recent Green Growth Strategy of Vietnam. Key words : energy planning, energy efficiency, dynamic modeling, LEAP, Vietnam
5. 09/07/2015 : Presentation par Hoang Anh Nguyen Trinh (CIRED) et Yorgos Rizopoulos (LADYSS/Université Paris 7 ) du poster Institutional change and market conditions for low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam –Daily theme : Theme Day 3 : Responding to Climate Change Challenges ; Sessions : 03 - Decarbonizing Electricity

The paper develops a meso-economic approach to the low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam. We argue that political will is a necessary but insufficient condition for such a change. In this perspective, we identify key players, and point out the institutional and structural characteristics of the electricity market which may impede the take-off of renewable resources. Indeed, the transition process depends on interdependent organizational decisions and implies a fundamental transformation of the stakeholders’ positions and relations. In particular, it necessitates the existence of a critical mass of initiating actors that perceive the benefits of investing in renewables and have the leverage to redefine the rules of the game, therefore modifying the institutional framework and enabling the constitution of new structural interdependencies inside the electricity system. During the current period, the conditions of the wholesale market appear as a determining factor in relation to the pace of the low-carbon transition. Then, we propose an analytical grid to apprehend the change path by following the trend in some focal variables. Among others, feed-in tariff and subsidies to the single-buyer indicate the balance of power between the major stakeholders and reflect the stages of the transition process. Keywords : Electricity market, Low-carbon transition, Renewable energies, Stakeholders’ interactions, Institutional change, Vietnam.

-  9/07/2015 : Ruben Bibas : Energy-economy-environment applied models : insights, developments and limitations - Daily theme Responding to Climate Change Challenges, Sessions : 23 - New Frontiers in Methodological Assessment

This day addresses mitigation and adaptation options, highlighting scientific and technological breakthroughs and discussing barriers, trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks. It explores local and regional responses, and discusses pathways for integration across sectors and stakeholders, emphasizing the need for bottom-up approaches that will be explored through the examples of local and regional case studies.

- 9/07/2015 : Eoin Ó Broin : An ex-ante quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap – Session 3305 Energy Efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demande

This work presents a methodology for estimating ex-ante the energy efficiency gap and key related energy system parameters. An ex-ante quantification of the, ‘energy efficiency gap’ is defined as the difference between market and techno-economic potentials. The ex-ante market potential is estimated from coefficients established with a top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970 to 2005 (Ó Broin et al, 2015). The ex-ante techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS) that assesses the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures (Mata et al, 2013). We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030.
8. 10/07/15 : Présentation par Aurélie Méjean (CIRED) du poster Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change, en collaboration avec Marc Fleurbaey, Antonin Pottier et Stéphane Zuber, session 4412 - Inequalities, responsibilities and equity in global climate policy.

Climate change raises the issue of intergenerational equity, as catastrophes may unfairly affect some generations. As climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to economic collapse, the tradeoff is no longer between present and future consumption, but between present consumption and the possible future extinction of civilization due to climate change. This work aims at identifying public policies that can reduce unfairness and strike an acceptable compromise between present and future generations when the potential impact of catastrophic climate change on the economy is accounted for. It explores the impact of inequality aversion and the impact of the attitudes towards population size on optimal climate policy.
We use an integrated assessment model which simulates the future joint evolution of the economy and the climate. The Response model is a dynamic optimization model (Pottier et al., 2015), which belongs to the tradition of compact integrated assessment models such as DICE (Nordhaus, 1994). It combines a Ramsey-like macroeconomic module and a climate module, and can be used to determine the optimal climate objective by comparing mitigation costs and avoided climate damages. We account for the risk of extinction due to climate change by assuming a probability of extinction that depends on the temperature.

Integrated assessment models can reveal the policy implications of various normative choices through the use of social welfare functions. Ideally, social welfare criteria should (i) account for inequality aversion (it should thus differ from the utilitarian criterion, which does not account for the distribution of utilities), (ii) satisfy the Pareto principle (i.e. it should account for the preferences of individuals) and (iii) be separable (i.e. the situation of past generations should not impact the evaluation). The ‘Expected Prioritarian Equally Distributed Equivalent’ (EPEDE) (Fleurbaey and Zuber, 2014) accounts for the inequality aversion of the social planner and respects a weak form of Pareto. However, it is not separable under risky prospects.
In order to reveal the impact of inequality aversion on optimal climate policy, we consider various isoelastic functions φ, which translate the inequality aversion of the social planner, and various isoelastic functions u, which translate the risk aversion of the social planner. In order to reveal the impact of the attitudes towards population size, welfare is weighted by the population size. In this case, the criterion gives priority to large populations. In the risky case, the degree of inequality aversion has a significant impact on the optimal climate policy.

- 10/07/2015 : Ruben Bibas and Jean-Charles Hourcade : Energy transitions in France : lessons from a forward-looking study - Daily theme:Collective Action and Transformative Solutions - Sessions : 02 - Towards Low Carbon Pathways

Presentation de la session : This final day of the conference explores transformative solutions to climate change from a cross-sectoral perspective in order to reach integrated solutions especially through collaboration. This includes solutions across a range of disciplines, sectors and stakeholders that encompass technological, institutional, economic and behavioural changes that will lead to transformative pathways to climate change challenges, from the near to long term, and at multiple scales.

Voir en ligne : http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/