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Accueil > Le CIRED

17/09/15 : Soutenance de thèse de Noémie Neverre

publié le 4 septembre 2015

Noémie Neverre soutiendra sa thèse de doctorat intitulée "Rareté de l’eau et relations inter-bassins en Méditerranée. Développement et application d’un modèle hydro-économique à large échelle."

- Elle aura lieu jeudi 17 septembre à 14h au CIRED, dans l’amphithéâtre du 1er étage

Jury

- Antonio Massarutto, University of Udine, Italie (Rapporteur)
- Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Université Polytechnique de Valence, Espagne (Rapporteur)
- Pascal Maugis, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (Examinateur)
- Jan Polcher, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Examinateur)
- Philip Ward, VU University Amsterdam, Pays Bas (Examinateur)
- Patrice Dumas, CIRED (Directeur de thèse)
- Jean-Charles Hourcade, CIRED (Directeur de thèse)

Summary

Global socioeconomic and climatic changes will increase the pressure on water
resources in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. This thesis
contemplates the question of how heterogeneously distributed water constraints
might foster inter-basins interactions. To do so, it is necessary to
assess localised water scarcity in terms of both water quantities and economic
values, in a framework combining a river basin level modelling with an extended
geographic coverage. The methodological approach used is generic
hydroeconomic modelling.
The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the projection and valuation
of water demands. For the domestic sector, the approach is to build threepart
inverse demand functions, calibrated at the country scale, taking into
account structural change. For the agricultural sector, the economic benefits
of irrigation water are calculated based on a yield comparison approach
between rainfed and irrigated crops.
The second part concentrates on the supply-side of the hydroeconomic
model. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands
are determined based on the maximisation of water benefits over time
and space. A parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach is used,
with hedging parameters and branch allocation parameters optimisation.
The model is applied to Algeria, at the 2050 horizon.
The last part explores how this hydroeconomic model could be used to investigate
inter-basins issues. In a context of heterogeneous water availability
between basins, water dependent activities could relocate from water scarce
areas to less constrained locations. The last chapter of the thesis suggests
looking at the impacts of water scarcity on economic activities location and
population migration in an economic geography framework.