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Accueil > Actualités

12/05/2015 : Séminaire des doctorants

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12 Mai 2015

- 9h30-10h15 : Roberto Ferreira Da Cunha, "Economic modeling of long-term unconventional oil and gas supplies"

"Unconventional" oil and gas refers mainly to hydrocarbons produced from shale and tight geological formations and coal bed deposits. The advent of large scale unconventional supplies in North America has caused significant changes to the global energy landscape over the past 10 years. The literature on models for long-term unconventional oil and gas supplies is predominantly non-economic, rejecting effects from prices on long-term supplies. At the same time, existing economic models overlook the distinct fundamentals of unconventional developments, mainly faster declines in production rates and lower ultimately recoverable resources per well. This paper presents an economic model for unconventional oil and gas supplies that is explicit in prices, costs and production profiles for unconventional wells. Economic signals guide optimal well scheduling decisions from profit-maximizing producers with imperfect foresight over prices, allowing new drilling to respond to prevailing economic signals. The model shows that the need to drill numerous small wells acts to dilute capital expenses over time, reducing sunk costs relative to conventional developments. Results indicate long-term unconventional supplies to be primarily determined by price conditions and to be more elastic to prices than conventional supplies.

- 10h15-11h : Florian Leblanc, "Ressource et compétitivité en équilibre général calculable : illustration des mécanismes à travers des scénarios prospectifs de la production de gaz de schiste aux Etats-Unis"
This study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of shale gas production using contrasted forward-looking scenarios on its profitability accross the world and the United States’ strategy regarding gas exportation. Results are sensitive to shale gas extraction in United States regardless the other alternatives. Cheaper resource availability in such an energy intensive economy like the United States has repercutions beyond energy systems and energy markets, including general equilibrium effects on international trade. We will first present shale gas production benefits for the US and the induced structural within the country. This structural change impacts international trade and world prices through a slight reduction of the United States’ trade activity. We then assess the resiliency of other economies regarding this change in trade terms. The response and ability of an economy to cope with a changing trade context imposed by United States depends strongly on its structure. In fact, this study reveals three main patterns of economic resiliency regarding trade : the country’s dependency on trade ; the share of imported industrial goods inputs in production costs ; the share of wages in production costs along with the standart of living. The relative level of these three features of the economic structure appears sufficient to assess the resiliency against shocks on the international market.

- 11h-11h45 : William Dang, "Changement technique et productivité du travail agricole"
Caractérisée historiquement par des gains importants de productivité du travail agricole et par une forte diminution de l’agriculture dans l’emploi et le PIB, la trajectoire de développement passée des pays de l’OCDE semble difficilement reproductible dans la plupart des pays en développement car leurs capacités à absorber d’importants flux de main d’œuvre issus du secteur agricole est incertaine. Dans la lignée des travaux de Bruno Dorin, l’objectif de la thèse est d’analyser au niveau des grandes régions du monde les différents modes de production agricoles et leur dynamique, d’une part, et les interactions entre le secteur agricole et le reste de l’économie de l’autre. L’idée étant d’explorer le degré de cohérence entre scénarios d’évolution technique du secteur agricole et scénarios de la productivité du travail dans les autres secteurs de l’économie.